What Went Wrong for GOP in Iowa

After series of moral and actual victories by Democrats on the legislative level in 2017 across the country, GOP was prepared to finally strike back by winning a special election in Iowa House District 82 - a rural seat in the south-east of Iowa that swung all the way from 49-47 Obama to 57-36 Trump. The district was a perfect opportunity to show that Obama-Trump voters were staying with the Republicans.

However, on August 8th, they were disappointed as the district voted to elect a Democrat  - Phil Miller by a solid margin 54-45. So what went wrong for Republicans in HD-82. Was it rural voters coming back to the Democratic party in large numbers or urban Democrats turning out?

Orange - Davis County, Red - van Buren County, Sky Blue - Jefferson County.

The 82nd district includes 3 counties - 2 rural and smaller - Davis and van Buren are traditionally Republican and 1 more urban Jefferson County (note that HD-82 only has parts of Jefferson county) that leans Dmeocratic but was one of the 'Pivot counties' that voted for Obama twice before voting for Trump.

Clinton's performance in Iowa, including HD-82, was truly disastrous, and its 2016 representative would be likely defeated if GOP would field someone against him. Not only did she failed to win more than 40% percent of the vote in any precinct in Davis and van Buren, but the only precinct she won out side Fairfield is Center-Cedar-Maharishi Vedic City precinct that the most unusual town in America - Maharishi Vedic City - is part of. So what changed in 9 months - at the time the special election took place? Pretty much everything:

Phil Miller improved everywhere in HD-82 excluding one precinct that the same most unusual town in America is part of. Miller failed to win a precinct outside the Jefferson County, but it certainly doesn't mean that rural Democrats are still voting Republican as Obama failed to do it as well in 2012.

The most recent Democrat who ran for the federal level office and won a precinct in 2 rural counties is Representative Loebsack who won HD-82 55-45 as he was winning the entire 2nd congressional distirct 57-43.

He was ahead of Obama in every precinct outside the Fairfield and even won Davis County:

But he was not the most successful candidate here in 2012. State Rep. Curt Hanson, whose death triggered 2017 special election, won re-election to the third term 59-41, amazingly, losing Davis County:

So, what happened in HD-82? While Democrats still have a long way to go before winning back its rural supporters, since both Davis and van Buren reddened in comparison to 2012, 2017 special election showed us that a lot of them still are Democrats, at least Trump Democrats. But was Miller's win entirely based on rural voters? No, Jefferson County and Fairfield, in particular, moved to the Democrats, too. It is hard to say whether Democrats have a path to winning its rural core, but it certainly was a good start for them.