Georgia's 2018 gubernatorial election promises to be one of the most closely looked ones. On 30th August, Hunter Hill, Republican state senator announced that he was resigning from his seat in order to focus on his governor campaign. That was the second resignation from Georgia General Assembly, Georgia's state legislature, in a week.
Senator Hill leaves open Georgia's 6th Senate District located in Atlanta suburbs, just south of Georgia's sixth congressional district. Historically the area of the district supported Republicans although not by big margins. The district was narrowly carried by Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012. In 2016, however, a lot of well-educated suburban voters, alienated by Trump, voted for Clinton. In the end, Clinton carried SD-06 by 17% carrying even more Republican Fulton County, that candidates like Romney, Perdue and Senator Hill himself won with more than 60% of the vote. Even McCain, who lost the district narrowly in 2008 won 57% in Fulton county.
SD-06 by county. Orange - Fulton County, Teal - Cobb County
The district's well-educated population is certainly not a type of people Trump appeals to, and his problems could be seen already during the Republican primaries. As trump was winning Georgia
38-24 over Rubio, SD-06 voted for Rubio by a huge 44-25 margin over Trump with John Kasich receiving 14%
On the Democratic side, there wasn't much of a contest. Secretary Clinton carried Georgia in a
71-28 landslide while carrying SD-06 by a smaller but still solid margin:
In general election, just like in primary Trump was rejected by Atlanta suburbs. Cobb County voted for Democrat for president for the first time since 1976 when Georgia's governor Jimmy Carter won every county in Georgia. Clinton won SD-06 55-38 - a swing of more than 20% in 4 years.
Compare that to 2014 US Senate election where Michelle Nunn lost Georgia by a little bit smaller margin than Obama did in 2012
Secretary Clinton improved over Nunn in every but one precinct in SD-06
But as she was winning in a landslide, Senator Hill (R-Smyrna) won his 3rd term 52-48 only to resign in 10 months to run for governor.
SD-06 is, by all means, a perfect pickup opportunity for Democrats and if they can win here, it will be an alarm for all Republican congressmen sitting in Clinton district that people turned away by Trump may not necessarily return to Republicans at least as long as Trump is the president. As of right now, this district has Lean D rating.
Update: AJC has reported that at least 6 candidates, 3 Democrats, and 3 Republicans, are likely to run for the seat. On the Democratic side, it is pediatric dentist Jaha Howard, who won 48% in 2016 election against Sen. Hill, trial lawyer Jen Jordan and political newcomer Nigel Sims. The three Republicans already in the race are former Georgia GOP minority engagement guru Leo Smith and attorneys Matt Bentley and Leah Aldridge.
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